Проанализировать развитие бизнеса

Introduction
Process of transition
Initial Conditions of Transition
Transition Policies in Russia and Ukraine
Macroeconomic policy
Privatization
Agrarian reforms in Russia and in Ukraine: the comparative analysis
Metal industry
Russia
Ukraine
The insurance markets
The market of cellular communication
Russian oil industry
Economy of Russia and Ukraine in 2005
Process of transition in 2005 in Russia
Process of transition in 2005 in Ukraine
Conclusion
Literature

Проанализировать развитие бизнеса

The iron and steel industry of Russia is distinguished with a high degree of concentration of manufacture: about 90 % of production in ferrous metallurgy it is made by six large companies.
Globalization of the companies, formation of transnational industrial giants with a full production cycle — the major tendency of development of economic last years. This tendency is characteristic and for metallurgy of Russia.
Process of full consolidation of branch is already practically completed. In ferrous metallurgy of Russia there was a six of the national players comparable in the sizes and quite viable. Per 2004-2005 they actively bought up raw actives — coal and ore, and also built own logistics.
The taken rate on vertical integration is caused by necessity of strengthening of the control over costs and aspiration of the enterprises застраховаться from possible changes of market conditions. The important feature of last years became active actions of the Russian companies on purchase of industrial actives (the enterprise of a raw orientation and sphere of high repartition) abroad with what the basic prospects of the further strengthening of their positions on foreign markets are connected. It is obvious, that this tendency will proceed.
All the leading metallurgical companies carry out extensive investment programs due to own and extra means, the qualities of production directed on finishing up to requirements of the world market, automation and a computerization of technological processes, in adjacent manufactures, and also in development of a raw-material base. Nevertheless, conditions of present time, especially before the introduction into WTO, demand strengthening this process.
For the further stimulation of investment activity of the enterprises it is necessary to accelerate decision-making on perfection of system of return of the VAT at capital construction. Besides it is expedient to work also a question on changes and additions to « the Tax code of the Russian Federation», concerning:
* installations of a tax vacation (under the profit tax) for the period of 3-5 years after putting into operation of objects of new technics;
* restoration of a privilege under the profit tax, directed for needs of capital construction;
* introductions of the differentiated rates under the tax to extraction of minerals.
Important point is refusal of collection of the import customs duties on stationary technics and the equipment which is not made in Russia.
The method of development of the state industrial policy is chosen « from private — to the general ». Having understood concrete problems of the enterprises and having analysed possible mechanisms of their decision, we finally shall leave on national principles of functioning of the industry, concerning all branches on the basis of which mechanisms of development of the state economy will be developed.
Practically each Russian region has presented the offers on creation of free economic zones — industrial, scientifically-industrial, etc. Already in it to year «theory» will pass in practice, and realization of some projects will begin.
As a whole, despite of favorable results in development of ferrous metallurgy, there is also a number of negative tendencies:
* insufficient competitiveness of some kinds of production that causes significant volumes of import;
* the lowest volumes of prospecting works on a background of low competitiveness of some kinds of ore raw material;
* a low share of production of high technical readiness in export;
* low rates of decrease in specific charges of raw material and power resources on production;
* high deterioration of the equipment;
* low rates of decrease in above permitted standard emissions of harmful substances in air and water pools.
Thus, despite of an amplifying tendency of growth of investments into development of manufacture, in branch not solved there is a lot of problems:
The first major problem is a low internal demand.
The decision of this problem consists in activization of development branches at participation of the state and should be carried out in the form of the state orders for needs of defense, space, and also in the form of direct state decisions on development of the major branches (autoassembly, pipeline transport, ship- and aircraft construction) and realizations of long-term investment programs of branches — natural monopolists (Russian Open Society « UES of Russia «, Open Society « Gazprom «, Open Society « RZD «, Open Society « Transneft «).
The second important problem — insufficiently high competitiveness of the Russian metal products in the markets.
Specific charges of material power resources at the Russian enterprises above, than on foreign, and labour productivity — considerably below. Deterioration of the capital equipment exceeds 60 %. It essentially reduces opportunities of the metallurgical enterprises on release of competitive production. About half of Russian export of production of ferrous metallurgy is production with the low added cost.
The level of competitiveness of metal products is substantially characterized by a technological level of production.
Increase of competitiveness of the Russian metal products will be promoted by decrease in production costs by realization of modernization, reconstruction of the enterprises, introductions of large investment and innovative projects.
The third problem — limitation of the reconnoitered stocks of ore raw material and a problem with development of new deposits.
There is hard situation with geological prospecting. As a result fulfilled and written off from balance of stocks volumes of ores do not become covered by a gain of stocks that conducts to steady decrease in raw potential of metallurgy.
The fourth problem — imperfection of legal base on gathering and processing of secondary raw material.
Shortage at the Russian enterprises of secondary raw material too is a serious problem, and its decision will allow to provide uninterrupted supply by a breakage and waste. Questions of regulation of activity on preparation, processing and realizations of waste and a breakage black and nonferrous metals are in charge of the state, therefore according to the assignment of the Government of Russian Federation Ministry of industrial politics of Russia together with the interested federal enforcement authorities has approved the Plan of measures on realization of the legal, economic and organizational measures directed on ordering of a turn of a breakage black and nonferrous metals and perfection of the control over this field of activity. And work in this direction is proceeded.
The fifth problem — personnel deficiency and the decision of social problems in connection with liberation of workers.
As a whole the decision of a problem will depend on a reconstruction of system of preparation and improvement of professional skill of the staff at the enterprises of branch. Besides it is necessary to carry out training on the new specialities, the using raised demand that will be promoted by interaction of the enterprises with profile high schools, technical schools and colleges.
The decision of the problems will give a new impulse for carrying out of modernization of an iron and steel industry of Russia, increase of its export potential; will allow to provide transition of branch to an innovative way of development and will render positive influence on increase of competitiveness of production of allied industries.
Ukraine
Within last decade Ukraine took place and has affirmed as the objective factor of the world market of ferrous metals. In 2005 metallurgy of the country has made 31,4 million tons of steel that is 3,7 % of world production. Even at the greatest recession in branch in 1995 (21,8 million tons) share of Ukraine in world production is around 2,9 %.
In USSR the maximum of manufacture of steel in Ukraine has been reached in 1988 (55,7 million tons). However parameters of manufacture during Soviet time were consequence mainly political factors, now they have the market nature. Soviet Ukraine has not been integrated into the world market therefore to compare these values would be a mistake. Volumes of manufacture of steel in 55 million tons (more than ton per capita), obviously, are unjustified for the state of size of Ukraine, however more and more become quality indicators: that is made and as is sold.
Export from Ukraine increased for last six years and has reached in 2005 23,6 million tons of metal products that makes 8,4 % of world trade. Dynamics of change of share in the world market also shows constant growth within 1995-2005. Quantity indicators, thus, confirm progress of Ukraine in finding the status of the full participant of world trade, however qualitative characteristics specify a number of the negative parties.
First of all it concerns commodity structure of export where products of low quality prevail. So, from 1995 semifinished items on 2005 density and pig-iron in national export has increased with 33 up to 48 %, and rolled metal — has decreased with 67 up to 52 %. In the world absolutely other tendencies are observed: the countries aspire to export final, highly profitable production, and semifinished items, ferroalloys and pig-iron in universal export, even in view of Ukraine, make only 25 %.
The developed countries or at all do not sell abroad products of low processing, or do it in very insignificant volumes. Thus, access of Ukraine to the most profitable segments of the world market remains limited enough, in particular the share of long rolled metal reaches 9,7 %, flat — 5,4, pipes — 5,2 %.
In a context of the above-stated negative consequences are obvious:
1. Ukraine receives less than significant means from export, as rate of return from sale of semifinished items considerably below, than from realization of ready rolled metal.
2. Exporting semifinished items and pig-iron, the Ukrainian manufacturers support a raw-material base of competitors in the markets of ready rolled metal.
3. Specialization on production of the initial and low processing which are being most power- and material-intesive, and also most problem ecologically is fixed.
One more negative aspect of foreign trade is the level of the export prices from Ukraine — they actually the lowest in the world. For comparison: if to accept for the standard of the price of EU concerning them in 2005 the price of domestic preparation averaged 85 %. On armature and a thick-walled leaf accordingly 80 and 57 %. In relation to the prices of production of manufacturers from Latin America the Ukrainian export prices for conditions FOB reach: on preparation — 82 %, on armature — 81, on a leaf — 68 %.
Analyzing geographical structure of export from Ukraine, it is necessary to note uniform enough диверсификацию deliveries. The largest consumers of domestic metal are the countries SEA and China on which in 2005 it was necessary about 26,6 % (5,85 million tons) export. Northern America and EU have consumed accordingly 11,1 % and 6,3 % of export from Ukraine, the states CIS — 12,1, the countries Central and the East Europe, including Turkey, — 20,2 %.
The best commodity structure of sales belongs to the market of the CIS (rolled metal — 61,8 %). Accordingly the most attractive under the prices is the market of Russia where the conditional ton of exported production (it is defined by division of the sum of the received means into volumes of put production of ferrous metallurgy) cost in 2005 about 350 dollars, and in market SEA — only 175 dollars the average price of sales in the market of EU and Central Is high also and the East Europe — accordingly 193,8 and 189,1 dollars, however access on the market of EU for Ukraine is rigidly limited by a quota.
In general, for metallurgy of Ukraine, considering its modern export ориентированность, it is important to be fixed in all possible markets and to reach maximal диверсификации sales. At the same time it is necessary to note strategic importance of the markets of the CIS, ЮВА, Central and the East Europe, considering volumes, structure and the prices of export.
Strengthening of a competition in the market of steel, especially in segments of sale of ready rolled metal, is caused by a number of objective factors:
— First, as it was already marked, world capacities and world production grow higher rates, than consumption of steel;
— Secondly, aspiring to support national metallurgy, the states-manufacturers, first of all with the developed economy, resort to a protectionism and restrictions of import more and more;
— Thirdly, prompt development транснационализации fixes world distribution of work according to which manufacture of the most profitable kinds of production, in particular final rolled metal of special geometry and a chemical compound, concentrates in the developed countries, leaving other participants of the market a place of the manufacturer of production of the lowest processing;
— Fourthly, achievements in «know-how» of steel allow to create quickly paid back mini-factories directly in regions of consumption even at absence of local raw material;
— Fifthly, the world market has appeared under pressure of that weight of additional metal which became superfluous after disintegration of the USSR and for today makes nearby 52 million tons.
All the factors above are factors of deep and long action, therefore tendencies of an aggravation of competitive struggle will be observed at least within the nearest ten years. Now characteristic external result of it is prompt growth antidumping, антисубсидийных and special investigations around of deliveries of steel production. So, with 1991 on 2005 ferrous metallurgy on production in the world 836 antidumping investigations have been raised. Against export of metal products from Ukraine 46 of these have ended with introduction of antidumping sanctions. The maximum has put it is necessary last years, and in current to year is begun seven new. It is necessary to specify also, that all investigations concerned ready rolled metal and any of them — pig-iron.
In those markets where Ukraine can is still free trade, also at any moment it is necessary to be ready to acceptance of similar measures. As a whole it creates serious threat to functioning of the export-focused metallurgical branch and demands the adequate answer in the form of joint actions of the state and the interested enterprises.
Present share of Ukraine in the world market of semifinished items, and it about 20 %, can increase up to 25-30 %, and the market niche till 2010 can make nearby 12 million tons. However feature of a question consists what to export such quantity of preparation is unprofitable for two powerful reasons:
1. Profitability of these operations, as well as norm of the income, low also is not capable to provide receipt of means for modernization of manufacture;
2. Exporting semifinished items, we provide with raw material of own competitors in the markets of ready rolled metal and by that we promote strengthening of a competition.
In this plan the structure of export to the countries PSA where preparation makes about 63,6 %, and long rolled metal — only 4,3 % is characteristic. That is supplying with raw material local rolling capacities, we own hands block to ourselves an output on the market of high-quality rolled metal.
For definition of optimum volumes of export of semifinished items from Ukraine we shall address to world parities of commodity structure of trade: production of low processing makes 25 %, the others of 75 % fall to final rolled metal. Assuming these parities as a basis and proceeding from certain above parameters of sale of final rolled metal (flat plus long) — 11 million tons, we shall receive comprehensible volumes of export of semifinished items and pig-iron — nearby 3,7 million tons.
Concerning to export of pig-iron it is necessary to emphasize, that in this product in the world trade a little and the fact of trade in it is the negative phenomenon. However, considering a present sales volume of the Ukrainian pig-iron at a level a year, it is possible to assume 1,5 million tons conditionally, that in the following ten years this parameter will be up to standard 0,7 million tons. Then the optimum quantity of preparation for export will make 3 million tons for the period till 2010 at an available market niche in 12 million
Thus, we leave on the optimum scheme of accommodation of the Ukrainian rolled metal on foreign markets for the period till 2010: flat rolled metal — 6 million tons, long rolled metal — 5 million, semifinished items — 3,0 million, pig-iron — 0,7 million tons. The resulted volumes on ready rolled metal almost correspond present, and here on semifinished items should be reduced by 5,5 million tons. This «surplus», obviously, it is necessary to process in rolled metal and to realize in a home market showing attributes of growth and real ability to consume up to 2010 7,5-8,0 million tons of ready rolled metal against modern 3,4 million tons.
Such model of export will improve a parity of sales in the external and internal markets, 85 % making now accordingly and 15 % a little. Till 2010 at the best it is possible to count on 35-40 % of realization in the market of Ukraine and still 60-65 % of export.
Near to a conclusion about maximality the reached Ukraine niches in the world market of final rolled metal actual there is a question — and whether it is impossible to increase it? It is necessary to search for prospects of it in a context of processes of globalization and becoming of the transnational companies.
For today scales transnationalization in metallurgy it is less, than in other branches, in particular in manufacture железорудного raw material where in three largest companies 42 % of world production and 63 % of world trade are concentrated. But also here process of concentration and integration of the companies occurs actively enough. Prospect for the Ukrainian metallurgy is presence of the several large companies, capable to create in regions of consumption branches or the joint venture on manufacture of rolled metal, that fixing and expanding the presence in the global market.
Now Ukrainian metallurgy in the technical plan is actually the most backward in the world, and, that worst of all, technical backlog every year increases. In practice competitive advantages have appeared more likely lack as have made possible long profitable work without technical reequipment of branch. Meanwhile all set of competitive advantages will be successfully realized under condition of modernization.
By different estimations, metallurgy of Ukraine demands from 5 up to 10 billion dollars of investments on updating of a fixed capital. Therefore modern scales of inflow of capitals in branch — nearby 50 million dollars a year — do not install optimism. Inadequately low investments testify to absence at branch of strategic investors, despite of significant enough depth of privatization (the order of 70 %).
In conditions of absence of critical weight of mature proprietors the role the state should play. It has quite concrete interest in normal functioning the metallurgical enterprises, irrespective of their pattern of ownership since it is workplaces, receipts in the budget, the sanction of environmental problems, a level of technologies and defensibility.
Strategy of the state should concentrate first of all on questions of formation of the effective proprietor and reception of necessary investments through mechanisms of privatization and adjustment of organic cooperation of the national capital, a science and manufacture. Without vigorous actions in this direction Ukraine will not reach those positions in the global market of steel with which borrowed in the past and which it is capable to win owing to an available potential. The more time we shall lose today, the радикальнее it is necessary to operate in the future for deducing branch from crisis.
The insurance markets