бизнес план, инвестиции

бизнес план и расчет денежных потоков ...

Content

1. The idea Ann’s Crust Pie – SWOT analysis…………………………2
2. Cash Flow …………………………………………………………….10
2.1 Sales………………………………………………………………10
2.2 Calculations………………………………………………………14
2.3 Income Statement…………………………………………………..14
2.4 Net working capital forecast ………………………………………14
2.5 CF – calculation……………………………………………………23
2.6 Investment criteria………………………………………………..30
3. Conclusion ……………………………………………………………

Ann’s Crust Pies is a specialty meat and fruit pie cafe in Moscow City that sells hot, ready-to-go pies and frozen take-home options, as well as an assortment of fresh salads and beverages. The company is planning to open its first location in downtown Odintsovo, and is very focused on developing a business model that will make it easy to expand quickly and that opens up the possibility of franchising.

Odintsovo is located near many cities in Moscow district , home to approximately 12 million people. It is an integral part of greater Megalopolis.Odintsovo is the city with a population of 141,560 and a geographic area of 19 square miles. With a growth rate of 8.5% Odintsovo’s population is projected to grow well over 180,000 by 2018. It is anticipated that Odintsovo will stay one of the largest cities in Moscow district.Odintsovo’s trade area consists of approximately 160,000 residents and is home to a diverse economic base including corporate offices, retail, industrial and manufacturing companies and one of the largest warehouse and distribution centers in Russia.The median household income in the Odintsovo area is around $91,000 and the median age is 34 years old. Of Moscow population 13% are under 14, 14.5% are 15-24, 21.5 % are 25-34, 36% are 35-59 and 15% are over 60 years of age.Demographically the Ann’s Crust Pie customer will come from all age and income levels of the market. Within this population we will focus on three separate groups with different needs: 15-24 year olds (including students), young adults and business people (25-34) and families with children under 14.SWOT analysis for Ann’s Crust PieStrengthsweaknessesLocation: our first location downtown will draw in visitors and downtown shoppersUniqueness: we stand out as a unique alternative to fast food and we offer constantly high quality food in a distinctive atmosphereStrong management: we have assembled a team that embraces different discipline with expertise in all areas of the businessLack of capital: All start-up funds will come from loans and investors.Lack of reputation : we have not established ourselves as a reputable meat pie provider yet.Opportunities Threats Area growth: Odintsovo is growing by 8,5% annuallyWorking families with children: this is the growing population, both in numbers and in their choice of convenient foods. Two-income families have less time to prepare a meal. Competition: one competitor sells similar pies and has loyal customers as well as relationship with businesses that regularly buy from them.Being unprepared for opening numbers : initial poor service or product quality could discourage customers from returning. Sales StrategyWe intend to succeed by giving our customers a combination of delicious food in an appealing environment with outstanding customer service. Once a customer enters our store, it is our job to make sure their experience with us is enjoyable. To establish a loyal customer base, it is vitally important we develop repeat business.Our pies will be cooked throughout the day, ensuring they can be served with confidence while guaranteeing our customers supreme freshness and taste. We will also offer fresh baked samples free of charge to those who enter our store for the first time.We need to offer fast service at peak times. To speed up customer service, at least two employees will be servicing customers. One employee will be preparing the customer's order, the other one will be taking care of the sales transaction. All sales data logged on our computerized POS system will be analyzed for marketing purposes.We will offer punch cards, meal deals and weekly menu specials and keep accurate track of what types of pies and associated foods sell well through a customer feedback program. With this information we will be able to streamline our food line to match local tastes and encourage more people to eat at the pie shop.We need to sell the company as well as the product. All employees will go through a comprehensive training process on how to offer customers the finest experience. Employees will be empowered to resolve issues and are encouraged to seek assistance from managers for any conflicts they are unable to resolve.Part of our mission is to educate our customers about pies. However, this must be done in a respectful fashion. Our knowledge is a resource, and must never be used to make a customer feel uncomfortable or ignorant.In the first year of business we will implement a Point-of-Sale (POS) computerized cash register system that will make tracking and managing receipts and charitable contributions more robust. We will seek a professional who has experience in how to tie in POS systems to the Internet and inventory controls. This individual's knowledge will also help establish technology guidelines for the company.Our sales strategy requires consistently high quality food and fast service in a relaxed atmosphere. We can accomplish this by:Hiring employees who appreciate our unique products.Continually assessing the quality of all aspects of the business and immediately addressing any issues.Interacting with our customers personally, so they know that their feedback goes directly to the owners.Evaluating food choices and keeping favorites on the menu as we rotate weekly and seasonal specials.Sales ForecastOur sales forecast shows modest estimates for the first year of operations beginning in July 2016. Cost control is a critical focus for Ann’s Crust Pies. Because we are importing our product from Odintsovo we will negotiate a flat purchase price for the first three years of business to compensate for fluctuating economic conditions. We have projected a 60% gross mark up over the first three years of business. Keeping costs low while increasing sales will be vital to the company's profitability in subsequent years.Ann’s Crust Pies envisions the first three months of sales to be fairly slow due to limited product awareness, the competitive nature of the market and existing customer loyalty. We have therefore forecasted a 5% growth rate over the first year. In the second year, Ann’s Crust Pies will add two more stores and in the third year, an additional two stores. The addition of these stores will nearly triple the gross revenue in the second year and increase half again as much in the third year. Compared to industry standards we have taken a very conservative 10% growth rate over the first three years of operations.Not projected in this sales forecast is the possibility of additional revenue generated from shipping via an e-commerce facility to be added to our website in year two. Based on current market research, shipping could be a significant profit center. We would sell frozen products that could be shipped overnight via SDEK or EMS to customers throughout Russia . Shipping would also become an integral part of the company’s marketing plan to help develop brand recognition and build product awareness.We understand product sales will also vary according to the season. Dessert and salad sales in the summer months are expected to be slightly higher since more people will be having barbecues and picnics requiring ad-on products. Pie and pastry sales should be higher in winter because of food oriented holidays and pies tend to be viewed as a comfort food. It is anticipated that sales of sodas during the summer months should be substantially higher.Please note that the sales forecast for the first year reflects store number one at a 5% growth rate. In the second year, the forecast reflects the combined sales of three stores at a 10% growth rate, and in the third year, the combined sales of five stores at a 10% growth rate.SALES FORECASTYEAR 1YEAR 2YEAR 3SalesPies & Pastry$56,149$185,298$308,820Pies & Pastry (Frozen)$36,531$120,552$200,921Desserts$18,726$61,796$102,993Desserts (Frozen)$5,444$17,965$29,942Salads$3,586$11,834$19,723Cold Beverages$3,154$10,408$17,347TOTAL SALES$123,589$407,853$679,746Direct Cost of SalesYear 1Year 2Year 3Pies & Pastry$19,652$61,904$103,173Pies & Pastry (Frozen)$12,786$40,276$67,127Desserts$6,554$20,645$34,409Desserts (Frozen)$1,905$6,001$10,001Salads$1,255$3,953$6,589Cold Beverages$1,104$3,478$5,796Subtotal Direct Cost of Sales$43,256$136,257$227,095Total startup funding amounts are shown in the table below. This includes initial start-up expenses, liquid cash for operating expenses, unforseen expenses, to help cover wages, and also includes start-up inventory. This inventory will include the purchase and storage costs of frozen products, purchasing of cold beverages and daily delivery of fresh salads and various other desserts.The purchase of long-term assets that will include an oven, two pie warmers, an ambient display case, freezers and refrigerators, a dishwasher and microwave, a three-compartment sink, decor and furnishings, utensils, a cash register and Point-Of-Sale software and accessories.A long-term loan has been secured for the purchase of the long-term assets.A first round of private investment from outside investors and family members will begin in April 2016. A second round will commence at the end of April 2017 for the purchase of further inventory and long-term assets to service the next two stores.Profits will be reinvested and the owners will be employees collecting a very modest wage. This will ensure that any operating debts incurred are paid for within the shortest possible time period.START-UP FUNDINGStart-up Expenses to Fund$45,000Start-up Assets to Fund$195,000TOTAL FUNDING REQUIRED$240,000AssetsNon-cash Assets from Start-up$77,000Cash Requirements from Start-up$118,000Additional Cash Raised$0Cash Balance on Starting Date$118,000TOTAL ASSETS$195,000Liabilities and CapitalLiabilitiesCurrent Borrowing$0Long-term Liabilities$170,000Accounts Payable (Outstanding Bills)$0Other Current Liabilities (interest-free)$0TOTAL LIABILITIES$170,000CapitalPlanned InvestmentInvestor 1$8,000Investor 2$8,000Investor 3$8,000Investor 4$8,000Investor 5$8,000Investor 6$10,000Investor 7$10,000Investor 8$10,000Additional Investment Requirement$0TOTAL PLANNED INVESTMENT$70,000Loss at Start-up (Start-up Expenses)($45,000)TOTAL CAPITAL$25,000TOTAL CAPITAL AND LIABILITIES$195,000Total Funding$240,000PRO FORMA PROFIT AND LOSSYEAR 1YEAR 2YEAR 3Sales$123,589$407,853$679,746Direct Cost of Sales$43,256$136,257$227,095Other Costs of Sales$0$0$0TOTAL COST OF SALES$43,256$136,257$227,095Gross Margin$80,333$271,596$452,651Gross Margin %65.00%66.59%66.