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FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE RISKS IN MODERN CONDITIONS OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE
Chapter I. Concept and types of currency risk
1.1. Place and types of currency risks in the system of commercial risks.
1.2. Virtual currency transactions and their development.
Chapter II. Current volumes and problems of international currency trade
2.1. Expert Forecasts: Expected Bond Yield Spreads and Macroeconomic Fundamentals.
2.2. Practical aspects of using the exchange reservations for foreign economic contracts of companies
Chapter3: Practical implication of hedging currency risk in foreign trade with Russia
3.1. Hedging as the instrument of regulation of currency risks.
3.2. Practical examples of the use of hedging opportunities.
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That is, it is a bilateral or speculative.So, the company may, with equal probability, how to make extra money on the changing value of money and to lose. But don’t forget, that the financial activities of the company, unless it is specially engaged in currency speculation, aimed at obtaining pre-planned cash flow.And, hence, the negative outcome of such a company are not satisfied. Therefore, such a problem elimination, and to be more precise, reducing the risk of uncertainty of future payments arises quite often. It can be solved by hedging using various instruments.Very often the terms risk management (riskmanagement), insurance and hedging substitutes for each other. It is possible to identify the following differences between them: first, the levels of use of the term insurance is broader in scope of application, and the actors (insurance companies, etc.); secondly, the term hedging is often used when analyzing the short-term, and insurance when analyzing long-term operations. Hedging is the only market form of insurance [4, p.60].In the business practice, these differences appears conventional, even artificial. The term comes from the English hedging hedge means a fence. Hedging (hedging) is the instrument used to minimize losses from currency fluctuations. It acts mainly by opening opposite positions on the same currency. The technology of hedging include use of forward, futures, option transactions, interest rate swaps, etc.The necessity of the hedge appears along with the open currency position.When short positions the Bank is forced to buy the currency, and the aim is to avoid the involvement of foreign currency at a higher rate; when the long position is to avoid a situation in which the Bank is forced to take the appreciated currency at the old, lower rate, placing it at a higher.Short-dated hedging is carried out often by using forward transactions. The challenge is the ability to foresee, to warn of events, or by entering into swaps timely getting rid of a futures contract. Along with market hedges, using forward currency transactions, banks have a direct currency risk insurance. His trends are as follows [4, p.61]:Structural balance reserves by achieving a balance between the inflow of foreign currency from the export transactions and outflows to finance imports.Inclusion in the contract with the clients multicurrency clause, implying the possibility of revising the currency of payment.If multicurrency clause in the contract includes the exporter or bank receiving payments, the possibility of reviewing the currency of payment insures against reduction of foreign exchange earnings, or its value in local currency.Importer aims to avoid losses from currency appreciation, which he must buy for the national money.Manipulation of maturities, ie, Some of the advance or delay, carried out mainly by the bank.Such pre-emptive action does not violate the terms of the contract; the bank can hold them to pay for goods and services, income transfer, repayment of loans, etc.Discounting of bills in foreign currency. The Bank assumes the closure of the bill, counting on additional income and, at the same time insuring foreign trade transactions.The formation of joint ventures with customers insurance funds or hedge funds, which combines speculative purposes with insurance (hedgefund).The hedging instrument is chosen so that the adverse price changes of the hedged asset or related cash flows were offset by changing the corresponding parameters of the hedged asset. The main instruments of hedging are forwards, futures, options and swaps.Forward is an urgent transaction in which the seller and buyer agree on the delivery of the underlying asset (for example, the euro against dollars or rubles) on a specific date in the future, whereas price basis is set at the time of the transaction. Forwards-is always an over-the-counter product.In forward deals "busy" two metrics: exchange rate and interest rate on deposits. Prevalence-sensitive operations is due to the fact that they are not only not so much getting speculative profit, how much insurance is a means of exchange risks, particularly frequently encountered when selling goods on credit.Urgent currency transactions arose from the needs of foreign trade turnover. After the sale of goods abroad, the exporter sells the currency, and the importer is forced to buy foreign currency, they are both interested in maintaining stable revenue.Develops the market forward contracts (forwardcontract), where transactions are timing and financing instruments.Important in exchange transactions has the value date (valuedate), i.e. the day of currency supply, on the conditions set out in the contract.When this contract date may not match with the value date.Usually under conditions of spot currency delivered on the second working day after the conclusion of the contract, when forward deals value dating is distant from the date of conclusion of the contract, but over the long term.Urgent, or forward operation is distinguished by the following features:the exchange rate is fixed at the time of the transaction and exchange goods shall pass to the buyer after a certain period of time;types of urgency is different: from 1 month to 1 year, but traditionally they did not exceed 3 months;since the conclusion of transactions and accounts until the end of the operations.The main instrument for becoming a forward rate — contract price monetary goods, linking the spot rate at the time of the transaction with the interest rate on bank deposits [4, p.45].Futures is too urgent. Futures differ from forward so that this Exchange product, which means that conditions (duration, amount) are standardized. Moreover, the buyer makes payment Center Exchange deposit margin as well as adverse traffic course (for example, an increase in the dollar against the euro) of variability margin, which guarantees the fulfillment of the obligations on the bought futures to the seller.If the dollar falls, the variability margin already makes the seller [4, p.56].Currency futures were first applied in the year 1972 on the Chicago market. Currency futures-an urgent deal on the stock market, which represents the sale of specific currency on the webcam at the time of conclusion of the transaction rate with the performance over a defined period of time. Difference of currency futures from forward operations is that:Futures is trading standard contracts.a prerequisite is the guarantee deposit futures.settlements between parties are made through a clearing house when monetary exchange, which mediates between the parties and, at the same time, the guarantor of the deal.Advantage futures before the forward contract is its high liquidity and continuous quotation on foreign exchange. (C) through futures hedging capability are exporters of its operations.At the same time with hedger on the Exchange Active currency speculators. Technically, their actions are similar to the actions of hedgers, but speculators bear the price risk because nothing insure. In our country, where futures trading has little experience, speculation prevail over transactions related to hedging, which increases the risk of hedgers.World trade futures development experience has shown that full and large volume of futures market cannot consist entirely of speculators. In this case, the average profit from operations each player (according to the statistics of large numbers) was equal to zero would for any length of time, and the market would quickly come to terms.The real flow of supply and demand for the futures market ensured first of all hedging. It is true there is a problem here: the interests of hedge transaction client and broker are in conflict.Broker interested sell futures, bought at the lowest price and profit. Hedging man vice versa interested keep cheap futures exchange rate of growth until the settlement day, because it guarantees the stability of its profit on a contract.In this case, if the hedger he enters the market, its actions are not directed to making profits on derivatives transactions and transactions with real currency. In this case, professional speculators, who carefully monitor the market, and have a large amount of funds for the implementation of the game, can replay the hedgers, which leads to the last to additional currency risks and losses, where the idea of these losses must be insured. World practice has developed special hedgers protections by establishing tightly regulated by the rules of trading on the stock exchange.Currency option - a transaction between buyer and seller of the option exchange that gives the option buyer the right to buy or sell a specific amount of currency exchange rate within a stipulated time fee paid to the seller. One of the parties to the transaction option has the right to choose for themselves the most favorable conditions for the fulfillment of obligations. During this second party receives a premium, depending on the duration of the option, the difference courses at closing and specified in this operation [4, p.62].Depending on which one of the participants and how has the right to change the terms of the transaction, the option buyer distinguish, or deal with preliminary premium, the option seller or deal with the reverse premium, as well as a temporary option.If the option buyer the option holder has the right to receive the currency at a certain day of conditionality rate. The Purchaser reserves the right to refuse to accept the currency, paying for that premium to the seller as compensation. For such transactions the buyer uses when he doubts the currency appreciation, although counting on it, and is afraid to incur heavy losses.According to the option seller of the option holder has the right to put the currency due to the exchange rate on a particular day. The right to refuse the transaction belongs to the seller, and it pays a premium to the buyer as compensation.For temporary option premium payer has the right to demand the execution of the transaction at any time at the option period for the previous fixed rate. Thus, the party of the transaction pays a premium for the right to choose the most favorable current rate for the currency conversion resulting from stock option transactions.The classic exchange operations with foreign currency are "spot" (the current foreign exchange transactions) and "forward" (forward exchange transactions). Spot - a purchase of one currency for another at the current market conditions, ie, in value recorded on the transaction date, with value date not later than the second business day after the date of the transaction.The forward exchange rate differs from the rate "spot" on the value of the forward margin. The margin may be in the form of bonuses - if the course "forward" higher rate "spot"; or in the form of a discount - then the course "forward" lower rate "slot". These transactions are mainly used for insurance payments and assets against inflation and devaluation of the national currency.There is also a deal "swap" – A combination of the two transactions referred to above: purchase of foreign currency on a "spot" and its simultaneous forward sale. As a result of this transaction is an exchange between the two banks at certain times of the two currencies to return to each other at the end of the original transaction currency. There are several types of operations "swap": foreign exchange, interest, debt, gold and the various combinations thereof.Foreign exchange operations "swap" is the purchase of foreign currency on a "spot" in exchange for domestic currency with a subsequent purchase. Operation "swap" can be used for hedging. For example, a European bank, with a temporary surplus US dollars, sells them on the euro and the US Bank buys dollars at a time for up to 1 month supply.Transactions "swap" are convenient for banks, as do not create uncovered currency position - the volume of claims and liabilities in foreign currency are the same. The objectives of "swap" are:acquisition of the necessary currency for international paymentsimplementation of the policy of diversification of foreign exchange reservesmaintain certain balances in current accountscustomer satisfaction in a foreign currency and others.For transactions "swap" is particularly active resort central banks.They use them for temporary reinforcement of its reserves during periods of currency crises and to carry out foreign exchange intervention. So in the 70 years between the fall of the dollar transaction limit rate "swap" Fed up with 14 foreign central banks and the Bank for International Settlements increased to 22.16 bln. Dollars in 1978, against 50 mln.USD in 1962. In 1969 he set up a multilateral system operations "swap" through the Bank for international settlements in Basel, under which central banks provide the BIS loan of up to 6 months to carry out interventions in the European market in order to maintain demand for certain euro. Central banks use a "swap" as one of the methods of currency regulation, primarily in order to maintain currency [17, с. 12]."Swap" transactions c gold held in a similar way: the metal is sold at the cash conditions of sale and at the same time redeemed with the payment after a certain period of time. Operations "swap" c currency and gold means the exchange of assets, interest and debt-claims - final exchange. The essence of operations "swap" with the interest lies in the fact that one party agrees to pay a different interest rate of LIBOR in exchange for payment at a fixed rate. The winner is the side that was not mistaken in predicting the market interest rate.Operations "swap" of debt obligations consist in the fact that lenders share not only interest income, but also the entire amount of customer debt. Operations "swap" c currency and interest are sometimes combined: one party pays interest at a floating interest rate in US dollars in exchange for interest payments at a fixed rate in euros.For operations "swap" in the financial markets are similar in the sense of the so-called "Operation Repo" (repurchasing agreement, or repo, or buybacks). Operation "repo" is based on the agreement of parties to the transaction to repurchase the securities. The agreement provides that one party sells the other package of securities of a certain size to buy it with the obligation at a predetermined price. In other words, one party loans to other securities as collateral."Repo" operations come in several forms. "Repo with fixed date" provided that the borrower is obligated to buy back the securities for a predetermined date. "Open repo" transactions suggest that the repurchase of securities may be conducted at any time or at any time after a certain date. With operations "repo" holders of large blocks of securities are able to more effectively manage their assets, and banks and other financial institutions get further liquidity management tool.Also recovered are simple ways to hedge the currency risk of the company - the importer (forward, futures, options) and complex strategies where structured derivatives are used.Oneofthesestructuresistheoption "cylinder" [Актуальные вопросы деятельности финансовых институтов в современной России.- // И.А.Зарипов, А.В.Мазанов, А.В. Петров.-М., 2005. 296с., с. 147].The essence of the scheme - the buyer wants to hedge itself from the growth, for example, the euro against the dollar, but does not want to pay a large premium for a simple call option. Then the bank offers to sell a call option for free, provided that the company will sell the bank at the same time put option (the so-called funding option). The option "cylinder":It provides the opportunity to participate in a positive exchange rate movement to the exercise price of the option sold (i.e., to the exercise price of the option funding);in the event of adverse exchange rate movements provides a guaranteed rate hedging (which acts as the exercise price of the option hedging).The option "cylinder" - a structure with "zero cost", i.e. with the purchase of the variety of the option buyer does not pay the premium. The option "cylinder" can be any width financing rates as high as possible (option exercise price of the option funding) by changing the hedging rate (i.e., the exercise price of the option hedging).Another possibility to reduce the cost of simple call and put options for the hedging of the organization are the so-called Options barrier knock-in and knock-out. Barrier options - it is common options, which "appear" (knock-in) or "disappear" (knock-out) if the current rate concerns the agreed rate (barrier or trigger). When the trigger American current rate must touch the trigger once at any time during the term of the option life.Thus, the efficient use of all of the above methods to prevent the danger of losses of foreign economic activity due to changes in exchange rates of various countries.Practical examples of the use of hedging opportunities.Here are a few examples of the use of hedging.Example 1: the largest domestic importer of electrical equipment has payables under contracts with European suppliers, expressed in euros. Management reporting of the company is conducted in dollars, and when the euro rising against the US dollar, the exchange losses are formed. Depending on market conditions, the monthly payments in euro amounted to $ 10.5 million Foreign exchange losses over the past year due to the increase of the euro against the dollar by 23%, amounted to about $ 5 million Importer runs on conditions of commercial credit – delay of payment after delivery of the goods is 1-3 months.Required to optimize the exchange losses so that the sum was either minimized or known in advance at the beginning of the financial year for the entire period.The company was faced with a large exchange losses over a year ago (began a sharp decline in the dollar against the euro). There are several ways to resolve this problem within the business enterprise.Firstly, this compensation strategy, which included an adjustment of ruble prices for equipment purchased for the euro, in line with the growth of the Eurodollar rate. However, this simple approach was ineffective - the price of the company's products have a high degree of elasticity. In other words, rising prices, the company lose market share, and therefore profits. Another solution - change the currency of payment under contracts with European suppliers to the euro for dollars. However, suppliers have refused to accept payment in dollars, fearing the emergence of exchange rate losses.The only thing possible - to limit the share of payments in euro in the total share of foreign exchange payments. So, having tried all available non-financial ways, the company decided to turn to hedge currency risks in financial instruments. The first thing that came into my head financiers - have to balance the company's liabilities in euro assets also in euros. But payable in euros from domestic importer cannot be counterbalanced by receivables in euros since all sales are to customers in rubles.The company is considering an option of purchase of assets denominated in euros - a bill or bond then exchange losses on payments in euro will be offset by the growth of the market value of the securities. However, this option required a diversion of the company in the amount of future payments in euros. Unfortunately, the importer could not afford to hold the securities for $ 10.6 million. In addition, investments in securities involve risk and low profitability.Finally, it was clear that the assets in Euro cover losses only in short term (one month, two, three), and by the end of the year the company will still receive exchange losses (cumulative total). Possible option - at the beginning of the year to just buy the assets in Euro for the whole amount of future payments for the year, but it is a huge amount. Another scheme - take to the bank and keep on deposit loan denominated in euros. On loan (for example, the ruble) to buy Eurobonds, which are then easily lay in the provision of this loan.Unfortunately, with the credit scheme has a number of disadvantages excessive lending worsen the capital structure (i.e., making the company less attractive to investors), as well as the time required for the passage of the bank credit committee.Therefore, the leadership soon began to seriously consider the options for hedging through currency derivatives – forwards, options, futures and swaps.Hedging schemes were developed with the help of derivatives, began negotiations with the banks.So forward. In practice, it looks like this. The company makes a deal with the bank for the supply of euros for dollars, say, a month. Immediately negotiated rate – for example, $ 1.1 per euro. If one month rate is $ 1.2 per euro, the company will save 10 cents on every dollar. With $ 1 million. Savings will amount to $ 100 thousand. If the exchange rate will fall to parity (11), the company's losses will be the same $ 100 thousand.And avoid those losses (in the case of depreciation) cannot. Forward - this obligation. In addition, the forward has two unpleasant properties. Firstly, it is to go through a credit committee at the bank, which sells forward (the bank is required to assess the credit risk of the buyer). Secondly, the forwards have a negative impact on the company's liquidity.For example, the situation has changed, and the delivery of the euro was not needed (e.g., provider payment in euros, under which the striker, canceled or postponed to a later date was purchased). In this case the company is obliged to put the dollars and euros to receive unnecessary. In short, the forward was highly inconvenient product, even though forwards are presented above all derivatives futures market.Claims to futures were the same as for the forward - the possibility of unlimited losses (although unlike the futures forward trading on the stock exchange every day and could theoretically be sold before the date of execution - that in reality it is unlikely because it requires active speculation, placement of stop losses, etc.), as well as the need to divert funds to make margin and the overall lack of development on the futures market.The solution was found in the use of the euro currency option call the dollar with settlements in rubles. That this product has been offered us one of multinational banks.option View - deliverable, i.e. involving the supply of euro against the dollar. Instead of dollars can be delivered rubles (at the current rate). What is the convenience of this scheme for the company. The first option - it is a right, not an obligation. That is to refuse a change in the liquidity of the option.Secondly, the bank offered to buy options on any amount and timing. Thirdly, the option cannot be unlimited losses because at the buyer's responsibility to pay only the initial premium (the option price), which is about 1.5% of the amount on a month's time at the current rate (the so-called at the money). Options for longer periods, two months and more are more expensive.The premium paid, according to a new Tax Code, can be attributed to the cost - in the event that it was hedging, not speculation, it is easy to prove that the provision of the contract with the supplier in the euro, which was purchased under the option. Driving with deliverable options it can be easily modified in the circuit with non-deliverable options, where there is not the movement of currencies, but only arbitration. The buyer of the call option receives the difference between the strike price (contractual rate) and spot (current exchange rate) in the event that the spot above the strike price.However, according to the Tax Code of Non-Deliverable Option must be the product of the exchange, but it is easy to get around, if you make a deal, which actually lies between the customer and the bank, the stock exchange. The only negative option - this product is worth more than the forward or futures, which, however, it is clear the right is always more expensive liabilities.Thus, a solution was found, and the company in the new year regularly hedge their foreign exchange exposure, which helps her to avoid exchange losses. Moreover, hedging takes place on its territory and not in a foreign tax haven, which is an advantage and competitive advantage.Example 2: Japanese exporter sees the JPY rises in price and a half years, and fearing the further growth of the JPY against the USD, sells its future foreign currency revenues ($ 1 million). Bank on September 10 this year, at the rate of $ 1 – 116,50 JPY. Bank sets for a premium of 2%:$ 1 million. * 0.02 = $ 20000 or 20000 * 116,50 = 2,330,000 JPY.Thus, the Japanese exporter gave the value of the transaction:116500000 - 114170000 = 2330000 JPYExchange Rates: $ 1 = 114170000/1000000 = 114.17 JPY.In carrying out calculations on the transaction 10 October the USD was $ 1 - 109.12 JPY and Japanese exporters forced to sell its revenues (the same $ 1 million.) For this unfavorable price for it. The bank pays the exporter the difference between the rate of the forward transaction and the market rate:(114.17 - 109.12) *1,000,000 = 5,050,000 JPY.Losses from the fall of the Japanese exporter course of the contract price of the currency (the USD) were as follows:(116.50 - 109.12) *1,000,000 = 7,380,000 JPY.Taking into account the difference paid by the bank the amount of losses decreased to 2330000 yen ($ 21182). Thus, the Japanese exporter was able to significantly reduce their losses due to the change (appreciation) of the JPY.Another hedging instrument - currency futures.Example 3. American importer makes the payment under the contract in euros (€ 4 million.) In October. Given the current prices of September 1 € -. $ 1.1400, for the purchase of € 4 million he would need $ 4,560,000 analyzing the foreign exchange market, he concludes that it is possible once the euro in this period.. When deciding on the insurance transaction, US importer acquires in September at $ 4 million euro futures contracts with delivery in October, the price of 1 € -. $ 1,1420. Given that the total value of this transaction amounts to 4000000 * 1.1420 = $ 4.568 million, the required security deposit to open a position is about 2% of the contract price - just $ 91,000.US importer predictions come true - in October, the euro rose to $ 1.1750. Selling at this price previously purchased futures contracts, the importer makes a profit:(1.1750 - 1.1420) * 4,000,000 = $ 132,000.. At the same time, buying at that price € 4 million for the payment under the contract, the US importer overcharged:(1.1750 - 1.1400) * 4,000,000 = $ 140,000.However, as a result of gains on futures transaction of its losses reduced to:$ 140,000 - $ 132,000 = $ 8,000.Less risky than futures, hedging instruments are options. The buyer of the option has the right for a premium paid by him to exercise or not to exercise the option. That is, to buy (sell) the underlying asset at a predetermined price or withdraw from the transaction.So, American importer of the previous example could buy in September option to buy € 4 million at the price of 1 € -. $ 1,1500. In this case he must pay the seller of the option premium in the amount of $ 16,000.In October, exercising their right to buy the euro at $ 1.15, the US importer of a profit in the amount of:(1.1750 - 1.1500) * 4,000,000 = $ 100,000which, net of bonuses totaling $ 84,000.And covering the profit of the option to purchase the euro costs at $ 1.1750, a US importer reduces its losses to $ 140,000 - $ 84,000 = $ 56,000.In that case, if the value of the euro fell in October, for example, to $ 1.11, the importer would have refused to execute the option and its loss on the transaction option would be $ 16,000 - the amount of the premium paid.At the same time, buying at this lower than expected in September ($ 1.14) euro price US importer saves:(1.14 -1.11) * 4,000,000 - 16,000 = $ 104,000.Thus, the use of these instruments for the security of currency transactions makes it possible to secure their future cash flows and make them more predictable.Conclusions.So, foreign exchange risk refers to the possibility of monetary losses as a result of currency fluctuations. Distinguish between "conversion" (cash) risk of foreign exchange losses on particular transactions in foreign currency and "translational" (accounting) the risk of losses resulting from revaluation of assets and liabilities, profits of foreign affiliates in national currency. In broad terms, the currency risk lies in the imbalance of assets and liabilities in each currency by maturity and amounts. You must also consider that a change in exchange ratios may lead to long-term negative consequences due to the fall in competitiveness.Currency risk management involves the definition of its extent, assessing the potential consequences and the choice of methods of insurance. The primary step in determining the level of currency risk lies in its thorough analysis and evaluation of possible damage and other consequences, as this determines the choice of a particular protection method. A significant number of TNCs and TNB now have their own system of assessment of currency risks and methods of protection, depending on the nature of economic activities and strategies, organizational structure, composition of assets and liabilities of the Institute. For TNK risk assessment is required when incorporating the results of activities of foreign companies in the balance of the whole group.Proper pricing of currency risk in extreme unbalance in the risk situation takes an important economic value. Elements of the market at that time could undermine long-term efforts even large companies and, therefore predicting a possible currency losses is of great importance in intra-corporate financial planning, improving efficiency of core activities of the Bank or Corporation. Risk assessment always includes the magnitude of the risk period, the value at risk, as well as the risk of losses for obligations that may arise in the future (if, for example, will be contracted, on which negotiations have begun.So, identifying currency risks and developing measures for their prevention, it is necessary to analyze the possible consequences of each type of currency exposure. In particular, the emergence of economic exchange risk leads to a decrease in the competitiveness of exporters in foreign markets, the level of profitability of production and profitability of the enterprise. 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